Frente Amplio Winnability

Uruguayan voters are about to give give Frente Amplio a third mandate this November 30th. The following graph shows how the outcome would look like if the election were held this week. The undecided voters were distributed accordingly to each party as by the election day. The picture draws the pdf’s for FA and PN vote support as published by 6 major polling houses. The script can de found here.

As the picture suggests, the posterior densities are quite apart from each other and their confidence regions narrow, meaning that we have less uncertainty about the results under that area.

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