Posterior Distribution

Yep. He made it, the country voted No

Posterior Distribution

Yep. He made it, the country voted No

Yesterday, more Scots than ever since universal suffrage was introduced cast a ballot on the matter of independence.

The turnout was itself phenomenal and that potentially implicates a series of questions for the government authorities and citizens. For the time being the sole question is: would this benefit one side or the other? The verdict favored the NO–better together–with a margin little higher than indicated by polls of major polling houses fielded over the last week. This also returns to the point I raised roughly a month ago: evidence from the political science literature suggests voters who fail to promptly decide are more likely to vote for the status quo in referendums like this.

The Thermometer of the Referendum Outcome

The Thermometer of the Referendum Outcome