Bayesian Ideal Points Estimation

Packages you’ll need First of all, make sure you’ve a working C++ compiler in your machine; you’ll need it for Stan/rstan to work. # devtools::install_github("dmarcelino/SenadoBR") # devtools::install_github("rmcelreath/rethinking") library(readr) # pacakge for reading data library(rstan) # package for interacting with Stan (sampling over distributions) # library(rethinking) # package for interacting with Stan library(ggplot2) # package for plotting Introduction This tutorial will use data from the brazilian Senate, and build a comparison between two approaches very widespread in the political science studies.

When the Winner Comes Third: Simulating Candidates' Winnability With Inaccurate Polls

We present a modelling approach to forecast elections in complex settings, characterized by a high number of candidates, sparse and inaccurate polls, and very short memory on the polling houses performance. Because of the complex multivariate …